Inflation and conflict are at the centre of our analysis this quarter as we explore, from the unique perspective of the commodity markets, how much of the recent run up in prices is structural rather than temporary. First Covid, then the invasion of Ukraine have clearly supported whatever inflationary forces were building in the global economy. But these traumatic events may simply have accelerated processes that were gathering strength for some time, hidden behind a wall of easy liquidity provided by central banks. For example, well before Covid changed so many lives, global interest rates were at record lows while stock markets were pushing all records in the opposite direction. What were the causes of these events?
Valuations are out of whack
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